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EVEN given our unerring ability to ‘snatch defeat from the jaws of victory’, the recent ‘handling’ of the sensitive state of Jammu and Kashmir must surely rank high in our famed history of political ineptitude. Rarely have we witnessed political actors from parties and civil society organizations act in such seeming concert to convert what they calculated was ‘short-run electoral and symbolic gain’ into a ‘potential long-run disaster’.

Jammu and Kashmir has rarely approached what the rest of the country (barring the North East region) calls normality. Difficult in a state with a contested legacy, further marked by strong feeling of regional discrimination and, even if we are loath to admit, communal divide. Nevertheless, the period following the last elections to the state legislature, by all accounts ‘substantially free and fair’, had witnessed a major improvement in everyday life. Incidents of encounters and human rights violation had come down; figures of cross-border infiltration had dipped; tourism and economic activity had surged; and, above all, for once even ‘mainstream’ political parties had started feeling secure enough to engage in routine political activity.

No one could honestly claim that the ‘problem’ had been resolved, but it helped that for a change Pakistan was more preoccupied with its ‘internal’ problems than ‘fishing in the troubled waters of the region.’ Possibly, this may have emboldened the more recalcitrant elements in both the administration and political sphere to up the ante. Otherwise, it is difficult to comprehend why, just a few months before the next elections, the government decided to change the ‘rules of the game’ in the management of the Amarnath yatra.

It is important to underscore that the current ‘pilgrimage’ is nothing like what it was in the past when a limited number of believers made a difficult journey to a holy shrine, out of public glare and with the active cooperation of local residents who were not co-religionists. The desire and the effort to convert the Amarnath yatra into something akin to the visitation to the Vaishnav Devi temple in Jammu – precisely in the phase when the state has been experiencing serous troubles and violence – will have side-effects. Moreover, alongside stretching the already stretched security apparatus needed to guard the yatris, it also fuels apprehension about other designs for the Valley.

It should have been anticipated that the proposal to make available (even if we do not use the phrase ‘transfer’) land to the Amarnath Shrine Board would raise hackles. Yet, it is evident that the government had no contingency plans. All that happened subsequently – the breakup of the PDP-Congress coalition, the agitation by ‘separatist’ groups raising the bogey of a conspiracy to change the demographic balance of the Valley, the fall of the government, the rescinding of the order following widespread street protests, the consequent agitation in Jammu and its hijacking by ‘hardline’ elements – in hindsight appears preordained.

Yet the government – in the state and the Centre – prevaricated, letting the situation spiral out of control. Worse, everyone helped – the Congress, the BJP and its associated outfits, the PDP, the Hurriyat, everyone. There appeared little appreciation of the potential consequences, even of the fact that these events could only gladden all those who did not want any lowering of temperatures, including those from across the border. The subsequent economic blockade by causing immense hardship in the Valley only worsened matters, resulting in the attempted untimely march to Muzaffarabad across the LoC, crackdowns by the security forces, casualties and a deepening sense of frustration and alienation.

The march, reflective of the alienation and ‘cussedness’ of Valley politicians, was matched by the hardliners of Jammu who refused to participate in an all-party meet if it included any Muslim politician from Kashmir. No surprise that so many believe we are back in the troubled times of the early 1990s. Why, enough people, and not just from the BJP, are now openly talking of abrogating Article 370 granting J&K a special status and, equally troubling, reviving the Dixon Plan of dividing the state on religious lines.

None of this is designed to showcase the confidence and ability of a country which recently celebrated its 61st year of Independence. Nor does it speak well of a prime minister and UPA chief unable to provide fresh leadership to a discredited Union home ministry. It is all very well for the prime minister to admonish the BJP and warn about ‘communalising’ a volatile situation, but surely a consistent refusal to act on what are deeply felt concerns in all regions of the state for fear of possible consequences, hardly communicates a leadership in control. If Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was willing to ‘bite the bullet’ on the civil nuclear agreement, should he not display similar resolve in this case?

Harsh Sethi