The problem

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WITH the announcement of schedules of elections to six state assemblies – Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir – the country is once again readying itself for a season of heat and passion. True, the next general elections are still some months away, but the current set of contests are significant enough for both the political class and electors at large to gird themselves up for the major battle ahead. No wonder that even in states where elections are not due, the political temperature is on the rise, be it the shenanigans of the Raj Thackeray led MNS in Maharashtra or the threat by the Dravid MPs from Tamil Nadu to resign their seats in Parliament over events in neighbouring Sri Lanka.

This round of elections to various state assemblies comes at an interesting juncture in Indian history. After years of high and sustained growth, the Indian economic story is facing rough weather. A combination of worrying inflation and recessionary conditions, reflected not only in the meltdown of the stock market but also a fall in job creation and fresh investments, cannot be good news for incumbent governments. Even more disturbing is the escalation of violence, this time targeting the Christian minority in the states of Orissa and Karnataka. And unfortunately, a spate of high-profile bomb attacks in a number of cities have added to the already heightened discourse on terrorism, pushing a beleaguered Muslim community further on the back foot. Coming as all this does in the wake of major violence in Jammu and Kashmir, resulting finally in the imposition of President’s rule, the Indian state appears to be under siege.

One implication of these developments is that the electoral battles in different states are more likely to focus on national issues like a worsening national security situation and the seeming lack of coherence of the ruling coalition at the Centre than the performance of respective incumbent governments. In itself this is not good news because an obsessive focus on issues defining ‘national mood’ diverts attention away from the needed scrutiny of state government performance. And surely that ought to matter more in these elections.

For far too long political analysts have focused more on electoral outcomes and prospects of government formation at the Centre. The fact that no national party has for years now been in a position to come to power on its own and is thus often forced into awkward coalitions – both pre- and post-elections – in an effort to form government, raises fears of endemic instability, nowhere more than among the increasingly vocal and assertive middle classes. Evidently, it has still to sink in that the terrain of effective politics has shifted from the Centre to the states. Nor that elections to state assemblies, exceptions apart, generally result in clear and stable outcomes. Even more important is the fact that it is primarily at the state (provincial) level that new actors, forces and issues get a chance to break into the political arena and shape the future.

It is worth remembering that a large, subcontinental society will necessarily throw up a multiplicity of parties articulating a wide range of concerns. This is as it should be and the resultant incoherence should be seen more as a challenge of political management in a federal polity rather than raise fissiparous fears. Simultaneously, we need to factor in the homogenizing tendencies and demands of the market which invariably sit uneasily with the variety of laws, rules and regulations introduced by different state governments, often owing allegiance to differing world-views and ideologies. But then, this is what makes state elections so fascinating and important.

Even as psephologists and political analysts speculate on who might win or lose this round of elections, the likelihood of coalitions, the fate of different political leaders and what the impact of the eventual results might be on the parliamentary hustings due next year, it is crucial to not lose sight of the many changes taking place in the different states. For instance, amidst the loud wrangling on law and order, terrorism and ‘minority appeasement’, not enough is being debated on the implications of land acquisition policies for industry, mining and realty projects being pursued by the state governments. Nor are we hearing enough about schemes to ensure meaningful jobs and livelihood security for poorer rural and urban communities.

In part this is only a reflection of the state of our electoral politics which invests greater energy on caste and community combinations than issues of generic concern for the long-term development of society. Fortunately, the recent years have also witnessed a growth of non-party political groups and movements engaged in struggles to improve transparency and accountability in governance. These too, alongside a more vigilant media, should have a bearing on the forthcoming elections.

This issue of Seminar attempts to move beyond the prediction game to highlight issues and trends which are likely to shape the Indian democratic experiment in the years ahead.

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