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EVEN as there is a collective sigh of relief at the cessation of the Gujjar agitation which had disrupted everyday life in large parts of eastern Rajasthan, resulting in major loss to the state exchequer and, most tragically, over forty lives, any expectation that we have seen the last of this and similar conflicts would be singularly misplaced. The various factors fuelling the Gujjar community’s resentment and consequent mobilization have, at best, been deferred, not resolved. In all likelihood, as the state nears election dates, interested parties will once again raise the spectre of relative discrimination, generating renewed conflict.

The Gujjars have for long been demanding inclusion in the list of Scheduled Tribes, so far unsuccessfully. Unlike the more populous Meenas, they were only able to make it to the category of OBCs and that too post-Mandal. This, they feel, has left them at a substantial disadvantage vis-à-vis the Meenas who, over the years, have taken full advantage of the system of reservations and strengthened their position in both the bureaucracy and the political domain.

Adding fuel to the Gujjar resentment was the decision of the NDA government to include the Jat community in the OBC list. Being both more numerous, prosperous, politically well-connected and educated, not unexpectedly the benefits of being classified as an OBC were differentially cornered by the Jats. Unable to compete with them, the Gujjar community came to believe that the only way they could now advance was by forcing their re-categorization as Scheduled Tribes. Unfortunately, this demand finds little favour with the Meenas and, since they are politically more salient and better networked, the regime in power. The bottom line is that in political-electoral terms the Gujjars do not sufficiently matter.

Complicating the issue is the fact that under the current, official criteria of classifying a community as a Scheduled Tribe, the Gujjars do not qualify – not easy in today’s times to be ‘culturally primitive’, geographically isolated and economically backward, all simultaneously. It is another matter that the same might hold true for the Meenas, or for at least substantial sub-groups among them. But then, once having been conferred the ‘prized’ status of a ST, it is politically difficult, if not impossible, to de-reserve a community. Nor does any group willingly agree to share its ‘benefits’ with another, more so if the additional edge earned by the new entrant could in future make it a serious competitor in state power.

The tragedy is that all concerned ‘understand’ both the dynamics of the process and the compulsions of the decision-makers. The Gujjar leadership is aware that under the existing ‘rules of business’ they are unlikely to get a fair hearing, and that the Meenas will oppose any move to place the Gujjars on par with them. They are also aware of the handicap of their smaller numbers which in electoral terms reduces them to marginal players. Moreover, they realize that constitutional and ‘peaceful’ modes of representation often go ignored.

No wonder this time around, they revised the strategy of protest, carefully chose the site of confrontation, and decided on blockading national highways and disrupting rail traffic as the most efficacious way to gain attention. It is instructive that despite the high costs of this strategy, they believe that they have made some gains, with the state government forced to create a special sub-quota for them in employment and education. Reportedly it has also forwarded their demand for inclusion in the ST list to the Centre.

Though the Gujjars for the moment appear satisfied, there is apprehension that the agreed upon package may not stand judicial scrutiny since the reserved quota in the state now exceeds the Supreme Court mandated limit of fifty per cent. Worse, the ‘success’ of their agitation has emboldened other groups, opening up a Pandora’s box. Reportedly, both the Rajputs and Brahmins of Rajasthan are now gearing up for demanding inclusion in the state list of OBCs. How the government will deal with this proliferating demand for quotas remains to be seen.

Despite sufficient evidence that our current caste based quota system of entitlements has at best benefited only a few castes (if not families), the enthusiasm to be part of the arrangement continues unabated. Unfortunately, as the recent events show, the space to continue with this dead-end policy is shrinking. It is likely that a leader proposing another, more rational, system of representation and distribution of public goods would garner support. Hopefully, someone will pick up the gauntlet.

Harsh Sethi