WHEN the country started its quest for development after independence, Rajasthan had a few pronounced handicaps and a few advantages. What is now known as Rajasthan was constituted by the merger of large and small principalities in four successive stages. These native states had their own system of governance with the ruler being the final arbiter. Very few princely states gave any attention to improving agriculture or tried to attract industry and commerce in their territories; fewer still showed any concern for social development of their citizens. There were a few exceptions, but the general picture presented at the time of the formation of Rajasthan was that of a collection of under-developed economies, neglected people and autocratic rulers.

The same feudal past influenced social organization, essentially characterized by a hierarchical orientation, sharp differences between the elite and masses, strong paternalistic organization of the families and low status accorded to women. True, it had its own positive features: bravery, sacrifice, charity and fortitude. However, it was a difficult task to transform this society into a modern, egalitarian and democratic one.

Further, both history and geography make the task of development difficult: large tracks of arid land, frequent droughts and extreme climate. While evaluating the progress, or lack of it, in the social and economic areas, we cannot ignore the historical legacy and geographical handicaps.

Compared to several other states of the country, it was more difficult for Rajasthan to be a part of the ‘mainstream’. Till very recently it was lumped with what are termed as ‘Bimaru’ states, sharing with them certain common disadvantages, such as high growth of population, low levels of literacy, lack of infrastructure, low urbanization and a rigid social structure.

 

Things are now changing, slowly but perceptibly. The state is coming closer to the ‘mainstream’ in social, economic and political terms. This is happening mainly because of three major changes taking place in the state. The most important among these is the growth of an urban middle class. Till recently the urban middle class, which was a small fraction of the total population, was mainly constituted by government employees with some in the service sector, i.e. the small number of senior teachers, doctors and lawyers. In this regard, the state has witnessed a rapid change in the last few years. This change is mainly due to the growth of the tier II and tier III cities.

All over the country it is increasingly becoming difficult to establish or expand industry, including service industry in the tier I cities, i.e. in the metropolitan areas. In Rajasthan too tier II cities, like Jaipur, or tier III cities, the divisional headquarters such as Jodhpur and Kota, are gaining in importance. According to a recent Assocham survey, tier II and tier III cities are now emerging as the main centres for job creation. Jaipur is listed 7th among the top 10 cities in this list, with a few of the tier III cities of the state also finding a place in this category.

 

The jobs created in these cities are not in the traditional industry or traditional services. More and more employment opportunities are being created in modern and organized retailing, IT companies, BPO, insurance and banking, and in hospitality and real estate. Jaipur and few other cities in the state, e.g. Kota, are fast emerging as education hubs. Even traditional industries such as handicraft, gems and jewellery, construction and so on, are increasingly being organized as modern enterprises manned by professional people. Opportunities for employment in this ‘modern’ sector are meant for skilled manpower, which is well educated and better paid. The growing workforce in these industries and occupations constitutes the new urban middle class. This is a countrywide phenomenon, and Rajasthan, though a latecomer, is now expanding training facilities and infrastructure, and is acquiring a fair share of jobs in these sectors.

The lifestyle, if not the thought process, of the modern urban middle class is considerably different from the society of which they are a part. The growth of malls, parlours, internet cafés and coffee houses, multiplex cinema halls, and now some good book shops (!) are all testimony to a movement of Jaipur and other cities of Rajasthan towards an urban culture shared by other important tier II cities such as Ahmedabad, Pune or Chandigarh. The roller of homogenization is, slowly and steadily, running over the growing middle class of urban Rajasthan.

Another important development in recent years is the spread of education among girls. With regard to literacy levels, until 2001 Rajasthan occupied a very low position among the major states in the country, and in the case of girl’s education, practically the lowest, next to Bihar. The last chief minister of Rajasthan, Ashok Gehlot, gave the slogan ‘pani bachao, bijali bachao, sab ko padhao’ – save water, save electricity, make everyone literate. His government did not succeed on the water or electricity fronts, but the movement for literacy took off.

The present chief minister continued the movement and laid special emphasis on girl’s education. As a result schools and colleges have proliferated. There is hardly a town of any size without a high school and, in most cases, a college. Several inducements were offered to attract girls to enrol in the schools and colleges. Civil society institutions have also joined the campaign to raise awareness about girls’ education, and in many cases started institutions to impart basic and higher education.

 

Education for girls has not stopped at the primary school level. At least in the urban areas a large number are studying in degree courses and entering the job market. Most of them aspire to a teacher’s job, but now many are also entering professions where earlier they were conspicuously absent, e.g. engineers, bankers, managers and so on. The mushrooming of institutions of higher learning catering to girls’ education is playing an important role, and awareness of employment opportunities has acted as a spur. Employed women are no longer suspected of being ‘loose characters’; rather they are earning respect as responsible breadwinners. In a conservative patriarchal society this is a major change in the attitude towards women. So far this change is mainly restricted to urban areas, but it is steadily spilling over to smaller towns, and will certainly reach the rural hinterland.

 

While both these changes are salutary, unfortunately there is a negative development as well. Rajsthan has imbibed a culture of caste-based politics, in fact, much more vehemently than in several other parts of the country. This is a retrogressive step, but unfortunately it is in sync with the current environment in the country. In the formative years of Rajasthan, the political leadership was engaged with fighting the fissiparous tendencies and in evolving a common identity. With the efforts made in the last few decades this task was completed to a reasonable extent.

This was no easy task, however. People commonly identified themselves with the principalities of their origin – as Jodhpuris, Bikaneris, Mewaris, and Mewatis for example. Over a period of time these identities have blurred and Rajasthan has now emerged as an identifiable political and economic entity. Again, in tune with several other parts of the country, regional, rather sub-regional, loyalties have given place to caste-based loyalties. This is starkly manifested in the political arena, with spoke-persons of various castes demanding their share in political office. Political parties without exception, have succumbed to caste-based considerations, treating castes as vote banks.

Caste considerations have bred exclusiveness and, worse, hostility towards those who are considered rivals. Not that this tendency was altogether absent in the past. Age old rivalry between Jats and Rajputs even preceded the formation of Rajasthan, but it was not as virulent as the present day caste rivalries between, say Meenas and Gujjars. These castes are organizing themselves to claim the loaves and fishes of political power. The focal point for caste rivalries is ‘reservation’, especially in government jobs, since market orientation, privatization and globalization have not diminished the lure of government jobs.

With good remuneration, no accountability, job security and the prospect of upar ki amdani (extra-legal income), these are preferred to private jobs by the unskilled, semi-educated youth who constitute the political base of the caste leaders. Every political party has succumbed to the temptation of strengthening vote banks among different castes. In the selection of candidates for election, for instance, a major consideration is the ‘winnability’ of the applicants, generally based on their influence among the dominant caste of a given constituency.

 

No picture of present day Rajasthan will be complete without recognizing the role of non-government organizations. As in other parts of the country, NGOs have also mushroomed in Rajasthan. But the difference is that Rajasthan has credible institutions in every regions with a credible track record. Most of them are engaged in ‘constructive’ activity of one kind or other – livelihood promotion, natural resources conservation, spread of education and health services for example. There are others a well who have taken a stand on people’s rights.

Organizations and movements such as the People’s Union of Civil Liberties (PUCL) and Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sanghatan (MKSS) are in the forefront of such struggles. Unfortunately there are only a few who work on the empowerment of youth, women or marginalized sections. Rajasthan can take pride in the fact that two of the most significant programmes – Right to Information and Employment Guarantee – originated in this state, the former as a legislation antecedent to the Central Act, and the latter as a Right to Employment during drought periods. These movements were mostly spearheaded by NGOs with support provided by academicians. The impact of civil society institutions on the economic and political life in the state is thus not inconsequential.

 

The political leadership, of course, has made the greatest impact. Since its inception, Rajasthan politics has hovered around two parties – the Congress and various avatars of the BJP – both altering as the ruling parties over a period of time. And in all governments, the personality and capability of the chief minister has made all the difference.

The present chief minister has accelerated the three important trends mentioned above. She has made ‘development’ her main agenda. In this she seems to be following the example of Chandrababu Naidu, equating development with high-tech, IT driven growth. She started with a vision of development; created an Economic Policy Reform Council comprising of some well-known names in industry, administration and academics; invited M.S. Swaminathan to advise on agricultural development, and Kasturi Rangan on higher education; constituted a High Power Committee on Development and Management of Water, and so on. But the initial enthusiasm for well-focused planning and development soon withered away. None of these initiatives, barring the one on water, has retained her interest.

Between the two major initiatives of the previous government, she did retain her interest in girls’ education, but neglected strengthening of Panchayati Raj institutions. Like any ‘good’ politician she attempts to own all that suits her purpose. An interesting example is the central government schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Sadak Yojana, Nirmal Gram, or NREGS. The achievements under these programmes, which are undoubtedly substantial, are claimed as Rajasthan government’s initiatives, and widely publicized as her achievements.

Her grip over the administration is total, in contrast with the rather ineffective administration of the previous government. She has faced severe competition from the party stalwarts who were none too happy to see an ‘outsider’ taking over the reign of government. Her favoured strategy was to bypass them and gain popularity by directly connecting with the masses. In this she has largely succeeded. In a feudal society, a maharani has a special place of honour, especially in the rural areas. She has skilfully cashed in on the sentiment of the people and has taken every opportunity of mingling with them.

 

In the forthcoming elections both the major parties, the BJP and Congress, start with some advantages and face a few disadvantages as well. For the BJP, a strong chief minister is also a liability for it has not allowed the growth of a second line of leadership. Both in government, and increasingly in the party too, only one individual’s wishes count. This has thwarted the emergence of efficient party managers, just as it has inhibited the functioning of ministers and top bureaucrats. The only qualification for success seems to be how close one can get to the source of power and patronage. For the BJP this has meant a decline in the importance of Sangh functionaries who earlier had a decisive voice in the party’s internal organization and its interface with the people at large.

With the Congress, a key concern is the absence of a nodal point, which confuses both the workers and people at large. The former chief minister has a large following all over the state, but equally, a large number of detractors. His image of being a ‘good man’ has not helped him in the political arena. Both the BJP and Congress are not certain which way the leaders of important castes will lean. The Jats have an antipathy for Ashok Gehlot but they are not necessarily happy with Vasundhara Raje either. Gujjars, the other numerically strong caste, is also divided into two opposing groups without a clear indication of their preference.

 

Castes and communities which were traditionally aligned to either of the two parties, do not wish to be taken for granted. They want their pound of flesh. The advanced castes are no longer the sure preserve of the BJP, nor are the Muslims prepared to vote en bloc for the Congress. The urban middle class, which is reaping the advantages of economic growth, is likely to retain its loyalties to the ruling party. In the rural parts, women are enchanted by the gestures of the maharani, but will in the ultimate analysis vote for the party their men folk prefer.

The caste leaders decide how rural men folk vote even today. It is for this reason that both the parties woo the Meena, Jat and Gujjar leaders representing the three numerically strong and better-organized castes. The chances of the Jats tilting towards the Congress and Gujjars opting for the BJP are quite strong. The only imponderable is how much ‘hurt’ is perceived due to the ‘martyrdom’ of those who died during the agitation of the Gujjar community for recognition as scheduled tribes. The Muslims seem to be divided which is to the advantage of the BJP. Another major block of voters is the government employees. They have been sufficiently rewarded and are unlikely to vote against the ruling party, as they did last time.

 

What about the parties constituting the Third Front? The chances of their getting a majority are non-existent; even the possibility of their having a sufficient number of seats for a major say in government formation appear remote. In caste-based politics, caste leaders are shrewd enough not to allow their votes to go waste. The appeal of the BSP to castes other than scheduled castes is not strong. Rajasthan is not Uttar Pradesh. Here caste antagonism is as strong as caste alignment. The only top leaders that BSP has managed to attract are Natwar Singh and his son. Their clout vis-a-vis the Jat voters is doubtful. There are also stray Brahmin or Vaisya leaders, but so far no heavyweights from these communities have joined the BSP. Other parties, with the exception of the CPM, remain paper tigers at the moment. CPM has a hold on some sections of the peasantry, mainly medium to large farmers in the irrigated areas of western Rajasthan, and has sustained a few bases in Shekhawati. But it does not have any following among the truly disadvantaged sections, such adivasis of southern Rajasthan.

Overall, the manifestation of the trends listed earlier suggests that the ruling party is likely to win the forthcoming elections. Whether, of course, this would be the best scenario, remains doubtful.