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TO advance major propositions about the long term trends in Indian politics on a quick reading of the 2009 Lok Sabha results appears somewhat unwise, more so because, whatever any analyst may claim post-facto, it must be admitted that the final outcome took everyone, politicians and psephologists, by surprise. Even those who, relying on either their ‘gut sense’ or survey numbers, appeared confident about the Congress/UPA emerging as the single largest party/formation, are in shock, albeit pleasant, with the eventual scale of victory.

Sifting out the major reasons for victory/defeat will take some time as analysts attempt to work out the relative significance of caste/community arithmetic, alliances, quality of candidates, organizational coherence of the party, the appeal of leadership and so on. It does stand to reason that the factors explaining the spectacular performance of the Congress in Andhra are different from those explaining its turnaround in Rajasthan, the unanticipated resurgence in Uttar Pradesh or, for that matter, minor gains in Maharashtra despite lacklustre performance. Nevertheless, the sheer margin and spread of the Congress/UPA victory does suggest that Elections 2009 cannot be reduced to an aggregation of different state results; we may well be witnessing the emergence of a new national political culture, where irrespective of which party wins the contest, voters express a common political aspiration.

In substantial measure, they seem to reward performance, prefer moderation to extreme formulations, inclusive politics respectful of diversity to sectarian and sectional appeals, and look with greater expectation at individuals/parties who make an honest attempt to address current and emerging problems rather than stoke resentments rooted in the past. Similarly, not only did most candidates with a criminal record bite the dust, and across parties, there was a decisive turning away from expression of arrogance and hubris. All of this seems to suggest a maturing of electoral choice and the emergence of a discerning and demanding electorate – in brief, good news for democracy.

Most observers have noted, with some glee, the poor electoral performance of the Third Front – a motley grouping of provincial political formations artificially stitched together by the Left, ostensibly to provide a non-Congress – non-BJP front. Yet, we have an electoral verdict in which the two main parties – the Congress and the BJP – account for well over half the strength in Parliament. But, whether this signals an unambiguous return of national parties is unclear. There is little doubt that at the moment, given the difficult economic and security environment, the voter is more inclined towards political arrangements that promise policy and programmatic coherence – something that a cobbling together of parties relying purely on electoral arithmetic does not. Simultaneously, there is an urge towards a politics that can more authentically articulate the concerns of all those – groups, communities, regions – that feel under-represented and marginalized in the programmatic matrix of the major parties.

For far too long, professional politicians and political pundits have accepted the easy disjunction between a politics of winning elections and one influencing governance; the logics of the two are assumed to operate on different planes. This was possibly true of a highly differentiated and disaggregated polity, where divisions – social, economic, spatial – seemed to overwhelm common concerns. But as the country becomes more united as a market, and increasing urbanization, mobility, and technologies of communication start forging a pan-Indian political culture, the logic of politics too is undergoing a transformation.

The imaginary India of the past where a quiescent electorate might acquiesce to a politics which demands loyalty to caste, community, family and lineage, even past services, may finally be relegated to the past. As this column has often argued, a young, better informed, mobile and aspirational electorate – if mobilized to participate in politics – has the ability to rewrite the rules of the game. And those parties/leaders able to discern the trend will reap advantages. Maybe it is time that analysts turn their attention to the nascent efforts at rebuilding the Youth Congress, particularly at a time when most other youth wings of political parties are registering negative growth.

A final point. Much as we might be thrilled with the outcome of Election 2009, calling it a victory for coherence, pragmatism, moderation, decency and hope, it will be useful to remember that decisive mandates fuel greater expectation. Discerning and demanding electorates can easily turn away in the face of non-performance or taking people for granted. Can we hope that unlike what has so often happened earlier, the new dispensation will not fall prey to hubris and arrogance, and continue with the work well begun?

Harsh Sethi