Regional inequality: a long view
P.S. VIJAYSHANKAR
REGIONAL differences in growth performance have always attracted considerable attention in academic writing as well as in popular imagination. There has been substantial scholarly research on the divergence in growth trajectories of regions and nations in historical time.
1 What is of concern is that such diverse trajectories may have resulted in widening the gap between regions in terms of economic and social opportunity of their people. Hence, we need to look closely at how geo-physical and socio-economic differences between regions contribute to regional inequalities and result in growth processes that are polarized, exploitative and undesirable.What are the key drivers of regional differentiation in India? The persistence of regional identities and old geographies in spite of the efforts of the nation state towards homogenization renders a ‘spectral quality’ to their existence.
2 The linguistic reorganization of states may have been one kind of response to the regional question. However, we have many recent examples of such identities reasserting themselves, leading to a break-up of the linguistic states and formation of new ones. I hypothesize that the region is not a static category but a dynamic and fluid one, one which is constantly being constituted and reconfigured. With this understanding, we try to explore the role of ecological factors, the character of institutions, and type of politics in shaping and reconfiguring regions.Regions had already acquired an identifiable shape in India before the advent of colonialism. Colonialism encountered and selectively conquered and integrated regions into its fold. While doing so, the structure of the society that underlay the regional systems was also largely reconstituted.
3 The impact of these encounters varied across geographical space and different regions and social classes responded differently to colonialism. It is interesting to note that most of the ecologically favourable areas (irrigated river valleys, floodplains, deltas and coastal regions) were under direct rule of the colonial state, whereas most of the interior, upland and dry regions were ruled by the princely states.4
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he ecologically favourable areas both gained from public investment and infrastructure development and also responded positively to the expansion of trade and agrarian commercialization between 1880 and 1920. Accounting for about 30 per cent of the total geographical area of the country, these regions not only had better access to irrigation but also more agricultural land per capita such that land here was more productive (as indicated by the land revenue per square mile of agricultural land). The interior upland and arid regions, however, remained relatively backward. They had lower average rainfall, a smaller proportion of cultivable land, lower irrigation ratio and smaller revenue per square mile of agricultural land. They also had lower transport connectivity compared to the former.5 Thus, regional inequalities seem to have become well entrenched by 1947.In post-independence India, the developmental state viewed public investment as one of the principal vehicles for balanced regional development and transforming rural areas. The state also enacted legislation such as land reforms for changing outmoded rural institutions governing both land tenure and labour relations. Simultaneously, processes of democratization and social movements that formed new caste based political alliances both questioned old established hierarchies and strove towards a more inclusive society. Could this be seen as politics overturning the dominance of ecology and institutions and achieving some kind of convergence among regions? Regional imbalances undoubtedly continued but we also see evidence of backward regions ‘catching up’ to an extent with the more advanced regions, especially after 1980.
6 Some evidence for this is from data related to agricultural growth, defined as a long-term rise in the value of output and level of productivity of agricultural land.
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sing the long period database compiled by G.S. Bhalla and Gurmail Singh,7 I have attempted to compare the long-term tendencies in agricultural growth in India from a regional perspective. Agrarian regions are defined broadly as groups of districts sharing common topographic, agro-climatic, social and economic characteristics. Fifty-two agrarian regions can be broadly identified across India. In the Bhalla-Singh database, original district boundaries as in the early 1960s are kept constant and the current districts are reconfigured to these original districts. The database estimates triennium averages of crop area, irrigated area, value of production, agricultural workers and inputs (fertilizers, pump sets and tractors) over the period spanning 1962-65 to 2005-08. Output calculations are made taking into account the area and production of 35 major crops at constant 1990-93 prices.
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his methodology has the advantage of permitting temporal comparisons in agricultural growth across districts and states in India. However, it also has several limitations as it takes into account only 35 major field crops and hence is likely to be biased against districts with a sizeable area under tree crops and plantations. This data set also excludes the north east states except Assam and does not incorporate the value of livestock production. Despite all these limitations, the database still remains a useful source of information on agricultural growth in India.The analysis of agricultural productivity, value of production, irrigated area and use of inputs was carried out at three time points – 1962-65, 1980-83 and 2005-08. What is striking about the results is that there seems to be very little change in the overall ordering of agrarian regions in terms of their level of agricultural productivity. Many regions repeat at the top 20 per cent of the productivity ranking table. The same holds true at the bottom of the hierarchy as well. The relatively unchanging (or slow changing) ranking of regions in terms of their productivity levels shows the strong effect of initial conditions of the region on its future growth prospects.
However, when we look at the rate of growth of the value of output and agricultural productivity, a different picture emerges. There seems to be a group of agrarian regions which, despite being in the low productivity category for a long time, have managed to break out of that group recently. Four notable examples of this are Telangana, Saurashtra, North Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh (the Malwa region). This phenomenon is interesting not only because it includes many of the hitherto backward regions, but also because their experience of growth dynamism is of recent origin, especially after 1980. The strong push given by the state governments could have been a major reason behind their growth.
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uch conclusions, drawn on the basis of a comparison of agricultural production and productivity, should, however, be treated with some caution. They should be read along with other indicators of rural well-being and rural incomes. Moreover, this should not be taken to mean that the nature of agricultural growth in these seemingly fast growing regions has benefited all sections of the agricultural population uniformly. In other words, faster agricultural growth and rising agricultural productivity is perfectly compatible with increasing inequality within regions. Our purpose here is not so much to understand the equity implications of agricultural growth within a region as to identify the dynamic factors giving rise to growth and structural change in agrarian economies.Taking the example of western Madhya Pradesh (Malwa), I try to capture the dynamic factors operating within this agrarian region. The changes in the value of agricultural production and productivity of the agrarian regions in Madhya Pradesh are given in Table 1.
TABLE 1 Rate of Growth of Value of Agricultural Production and Productivity of Agrarian Regions in Madhya Pradesh, 1962-2008 |
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RoG of Value of Agricultural Production (% p.a.) |
RoG of Agricultural Productivity (% p.a.) |
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Regions |
1962-1983 |
1983-2008 |
1962-2008 |
1962-1983 |
1983-2008 |
1962-2008 |
Malwa |
2.35 |
3.90 |
3.25 |
1.20 |
2.59 |
2.01 |
Narmada |
2.67 |
3.53 |
3.17 |
0.04 |
3.14 |
1.83 |
Madhya Bharat |
2.10 |
3.14 |
2.70 |
1.43 |
2.10 |
1.82 |
North |
0.76 |
4.11 |
2.69 |
1.66 |
1.76 |
1.72 |
Mahakoshal |
1.08 |
3.14 |
2.27 |
0.80 |
2.32 |
1.68 |
Chhattisgarh |
1.92 |
1.86 |
1.89 |
0.19 |
2.46 |
1.50 |
Vindhyachal |
0.47 |
2.76 |
1.80 |
1.16 |
0.94 |
1.03 |
Source : Calculated from Bhalla and Singh (2012). |
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he nine districts of western Madhya Pradesh together form a compact geographical region called Malwa. As seen from the accompanying table, Malwa has recorded the highest rate of growth among the agrarian regions of MP in both land productivity as well as value of production over the entire period under study. These rates have been particularly higher in the second period, i.e. 1980-83 to 2005-08. The Malwa region is located in a comparatively low rainfall regime, with an annual rainfall of 800 mm. Groundwater accounted for 85 per cent of the gross irrigated area. Open dugwells and tanks have traditionally been the modes of irrigation in this area. In 1970-71, rainfed crops dominated the cropping pattern of this area with only six per cent of the gross cropped area under irrigation. It was largely a millet and pulses growing area, with jowar, red gram and cotton as the main crops. The region has deep black soils, which allowed raising an unirrigated wheat crop after keeping the land fallow in kharif. Compared to traditionally wheat growing areas of the Narmada valley, the productivity of agriculture on the whole was low.Agriculture in Malwa underwent a dramatic change with the introduction of tube wells in the early 1980s. This was the result of a strategy of extending the green revolution technology to areas which were hitherto untouched. Since this region had very limited surface water resources, the focus of agricultural expansion was on tapping underground water for irrigation. This move was massively supported by the state through public investment in rural electrification. It is indeed noteworthy that compared to other regions in MP, Malwa had a head start in rural electrification. Availability of grid power and the unique geology of the region with basaltic lava flows made it cost-effective to install tube wells. The result of this access to groundwater at low cost was an explosion in the number of groundwater structures (dug wells and tube wells) in the region, which is partially captured by data from successive minor irrigation censuses. The most remarkable fact has been an expansion in the number of tube wells.
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n 1986-87, the entire Malwa region had about 13000 tube wells used for irrigation purposes; this number went up to 75000 by 1994 (2nd MI Census) and stood at 1.61 lakh tube wells in 2010-11 (4th MI Census). Overall groundwater utilization in the Malwa region went up from 1.89 billion cubic metres (BCM) to 6.59 BCM in 2011, an increase of 360%. With such intensive tapping of groundwater, cropping intensity (Gross Cropped Area/Net Sown Area) in the region rose from 109 in 1970-71 to 166 in 2010-11 and area under irrigation recorded a ninefold increase. Nearly 40 per cent of the gross cropped area is currently irrigated, mainly from groundwater. There has also been a substitution of unirrigated and low irrigation-intensive varieties with high irrigation-intensive varieties in wheat and chickpea, the two main irrigated crops. Nearly all of the wheat in Malwa is irrigated as is half the area under chickpea. Therefore, the expansion in irrigated area has been accompanied by a rise in the ‘irrigated delta’ or depth of irrigation (‘Delta’ or depth of irrigation is approximated by the number of times the crop is watered). The combined result has been a larger scale of groundwater withdrawal for fuelling agricultural growth.
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long with an expansion of irrigation, the land use pattern of the area underwent a radical change. Soybean was introduced in the area as a new crop in the early 1980s and was heavily promoted with state support. The overall national context was that of an intense shortage of edible oils, which led to an aggressive search and promotion of alternative crops like soybean. Madhya Pradesh was identified as one of the focus states for expansion of area under cultivation of soybean. Reports suggested that nearly 2.5 lakh hectares of fertile land with deep black soils in the Malwa region was available for expansion of soybean farming. These were kept fallow during the kharif season and soybean could come in here as the new crop.8 Organizations like OILFED were specifically created to promote soybean cultivation and introduce new varieties to farmers as well as farmers to markets.9Particularly striking has been the rapid growth of processing industries in MP, clearly giving a signal to farmers that the entire produce of soybean would be absorbed by the market. Concessions were given to private capital to set up soya plants with enormous processing facilities in towns like Indore and Dewas.
10 The mechanism of a minimum support price was also utilized to assure farmers of reasonable returns. Though soybean is a kharif crop grown without irrigation, its introduction coincided with the irrigation revolution in the Malwa region. This is because as a short duration crop it facilitated the cultivation of wheat as second crop even on soils which were earlier kept fallow.
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ue to a coincidence of these circumstances, the Malwa region’s diverse cropping system was replaced with an annual crop cycle of soybean-wheat, covering over 60 per cent of the gross cropped area. There is little doubt that a rapid expansion of groundwater irrigation has raised agricultural productivity of Malwa in relation to the state’s average and made it a relatively prosperous region. This mono-crop cycle, however, not only eliminated all other crops, but also put an enormous strain on the limited water resources of the region. Nearly all the hydrogeological units facing intense groundwater withdrawal in Madhya Pradesh are concentrated in the Malwa region. Falling groundwater reserves and the risk of well failure has raised the cost of extraction of groundwater to prohibitive levels.The social context of the region also supported adoption of new crops and new irrigation technologies. The caste structure in Madhya Pradesh is heavily tilted in favour of the upper castes.
11 According to the 1931 Census, the last one where caste based information is available, the three dominant upper castes (Rajput-Brahmin-Bania) together constituted 18.5 per cent of the population of Madhya Bharat, of which Malwa was a part.12 Tribal communities and Scheduled Castes constitute around 22 per cent and 15 per cent of the population respectively. What is striking here is perhaps the lack of a strong agricultural caste (‘middle peasant’) layer in the state as a whole. However, Malwa is an exception with the migrant Patidar, Khati and Saindhav communities being the prominent agricultural castes.Looking at this social situation, one could venture the hypothesis that it is these powerful agricultural castes who enthusiastically accepted new technologies (tube wells) and new crops (soybean). While other landed social groups like the Rajputs and Gujjars may also have participated, it is the three strong agricultural castes who acted as frontrunners of agricultural change in Malwa. They were able to consolidate their position, enjoy political patronage and took to farming innovations in a major way. They also stepped up private investments in land. Among the various regions of MP, except North MP, Malwa has the lowest concentration of tribal population.
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olitically articulate agricultural castes of the region were able to form strong electoral coalitions with other groups and lobby strongly for their demands, including increased market access, higher output prices and huge subsidies in input costs like water and electricity. The power pricing regime in the state, till recently, has been a flat rate system based on rating of the pumpsets. The state was also among the first to undertake APMC reforms and introduce direct farmer access to agricultural markets. Such favourable circumstances have been fully taken advantage of by the strong agrarian castes of the region. The consolidation of economic power in the hands of these agricultural castes likely resulted in growing internal differentiation of these castes on the one hand, and a growing distance from, say, the scheduled castes and tribal communities on the other.Our primary question has been about the key drivers of the process of agrarian transition within a region. The methodological question relates to the usefulness of the region as the mediation between villages and the state in understanding rural transformation. We tried to examine this in the case of Malwa. Broadly, we see three factors in operation. First, irrigation development, especially based on groundwater, has been a major agent of change. Public investment played a major role in creating preconditions for growth through rural electrification. Second, in the Malwa region, the state implemented a strong profarmer policy, promoting tube well irrigation and soybean crop, which the powerful agricultural castes seem to have enthusiastically taken up.
Finally, this state support to agriculture was likely a consequence of the consolidation of these agricultural castes, who have emerged as an influential group in policy, and consequently managed to gain support in the implementing arm of the state, namely, the bureaucracy. By the same token, the failure of tribal dominated regions in Madhya Pradesh, like Mahakoshal and Vindhyachal, to break out of their poverty trap may be traced to their inability to form such robust electoral coalitions to mobilize public investment. Hence, a region’s agricultural advancement and backwardness owes as much to its initial conditions as to the mechanisms utilized for mobilization of support for agriculture.
Footnotes:
1. D. Acemoglu, S. Johnson and J.A. Robinson, ‘The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation’, American Economic Review 91, 2001, pp. 1369-401; G. Austin, ‘The "Reversal of Fortune" Thesis and the Compression of History: Perspectives from African and Comparative Economic History’, Journal of International Development 20, 2008, pp. 996-1027; K.L. Sokoloff and S.L. Engerman, ‘History Lessons: Institutions, Factor Endowments and Paths of Development in the New World’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 14, 2000, pp. 217-32.
2. David Ludden, ‘Spectres of Agrarian Territory’, The Indian Economic and Social History Review 39, 2002, pp. 2-3.
3. Laxmi Iyer, ‘Direct Versus Indirect Colonial Rule in India: Long-Term Consequences’, Review of Economics and Statistics 92, 2010, pp. 693-712.
4. Tirthankar Roy, ‘Geography or Politics? Regional Inequality in Colonial India’, European Review of Economic History 18(3), 2014, pp. 1-25.
5. Ibid.
6. P.S. Vijayshankar, ‘India’s Agricultural Development: A Regional Perspective’, paper presented at the International Conference on the Political Economy of Contemporary India, held at Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai, 20-21 November 2014.
7. G.S. Bhalla and Gurmail Singh, Economic Liberalisation and Indian Agriculture: A District Level Study. Sage, Delhi, 2012.
8. P.S. George, Oilseeds Economy of India: An Analysis of Past Supply and Projections for 1985. Macmillan, Delhi, 1978, pp. 167-176.
9. Richa Kumar, Rethinking Revolutions: Soybean, Choupals and the Changing Countryside of Central India. (Forthcoming), 2016.
10. K.N. Ninan, Edible Oilseeds: Growth, Area Responses and Prospects. Oxford and IBH, New Delhi, 1989, pp. 132-136.
11. Saibal Gupta, ‘Socio-Economic Base of Political Dynamics in Madhya Pradesh’, Economic and Political Weekly 40(48), 26 November 2005.
12. Christophe Jaffrelot, India’s Silent Revolution: The Rise of the Lower Castes in North India. Permanent Black, Delhi, 2003.