THE spectre of imminent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hegemony builds on post facto (mis)interpretations of election results, combined with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aggressive projection of invincibility. The 2014 election outcome was unexpected and unprecedented: India’s first-past-the-post system converted BJP’s 31% vote share to 283 Lok Sabha seats ensuring a majority, even as 19.3% yielded just 44 seats for the Indian National Congress. A decade of record growth too did not help the Congress-led UPA government as the economy slowed down prior to the polls. It was swept out in a wave of anti-incumbency triggered by the India Against Corruption movement.

Modi resurrected a directionless BJP through a presidential style campaign and capitalized on anti-incumbency backed by the Sangh Parivar’s concerted organizational effort. He presented a vision of Achche Din and masterfully managed both traditional and social media to convince a large swing vote to buy into his promise of economic development, as also to turn a blind eye to his core commitment to a divisive Hindutva agenda.

The bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh led to the Congress being wiped out in its southern bastion. Communal polarization triggered by the Muzaffarnagar riots in Uttar Pradesh (UP), coupled with local anti-incumbency and multi-cornered contests, helped Modi harvest 73 out of 80 seats. Elsewhere, the 2014 outcome was the result of a substantially national election, in contrast to previous outcomes that were a series of state-wide contests. In Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Haryana, Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand, the BJP won practically all the seats. Where strong regional parties existed, e.g., Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh (AP), Odisha, and Bengal, they held their own.

After 2014, Modi and BJP President Amit Shah have plunged head-long into state election campaigns. Their high point was the unexpected BJP sweep of UP in 2017, where it more or less retained its general election vote share (42.7%) winning 324 seats out of 403, thereby fuelling talk of hegemony. But state election results are influenced by local factors – either anti-incumbency or regional party dominance. Voters sent parties packing that had governed for multiple terms in Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, Assam (all Congress) and Punjab (Akali-BJP). In Delhi, they chose the new Aam Aadmi Party and rejected both the BJP and Congress. Bihar demonstrated the ability of a united opposition to halt the Modi juggernaut, when the mahagathbandhan of Lalu Prasad’s RJD, Nitish Kumar’s JDU and the Congress delivered a devastating defeat to the BJP. In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee reiterated her dominance, and the late Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK managed to beat DMK’s Karunanidhi in a close fight in Tamil Nadu. Finally, the BJP formed governments against the voters’ mandate by unethically breaking opposition ranks in Goa and Manipur, as it had earlier done in Arunachal Pradesh.

Still, it is alarming for the opposition that the BJP now holds, alone or in coalition, 18 states, that together elect two-thirds of the Lok Sabha. In 1991, the Congress also governed 18 states, but those elected constituted about half of the Lok Sabha. The Congress now runs only five states, Karnataka and Punjab being the larger ones. Recently, the BJP also became the single largest party in the Rajya Sabha and the top constitutional positions of President and Vice President too are now occupied by members of the Sangh Parivar. Nitish Kumar has deserted the opposition, asserting that nothing can stop Modi from winning in 2019. Whether Nitish Kumar is right or wrong depends on a number of crucial factors including electoral arithmetic, Modi’s performance and, most importantly, public perception.

 

Modi is a master ‘performer’ when it comes to extolling his government’s initiatives. However, Make in India, Swachh Bharat and Jan Dhan Yojana are merely name-changing rather than game-changing programmes. Modi shamelessly reversed his position on policies that BJP had virulently opposed during the UPA years and has tried to take credit for their implementation. These include the Aadhaar unique identification (UID) project, foreign direct investment in retail trade, and the Goods and Services Tax, which was ushered in with a much hyped midnight session. The Parliament also devoted a special session to celebrate the promulgation of the Constitution, as part of BJP’s efforts to appropriate Ambedkar’s legacy in spite of Babasaheb’s rejection of Hinduism’s caste system.

One effort at self-aggrandizement that however backfired badly was Modi wearing a suit emblazoned with his name embroidered in gold thread. Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi attacked such vainglorious-ness by terming the Modi government a suit-boot ki sarkar, one which would readily sacrifice farmers and the poor at the altar of crony capitalism. Chastened, Modi had the suit auctioned and has since worked really hard on his pro-poor rhetoric.

 

As important as Modi’s rhetoric has been his strategic use of silence. When gau rakshaks flogged Dalits publicly for skinning a dead cow in Una, Gujarat, or lynched cattle traders and people suspected of storing beef at home, Modi’s prolonged silence powerfully signalled his implicit approval more than when he belatedly condemned the violence. It was Modi who had brought the divisive beef issue to centre stage during the 2014 campaign by pointing at rising beef exports and accusing the UPA government of presiding over a ‘pink’ revolution.

The horrific tragedy in Gorakhpur, where administrative failure led to more than 60 children dying from lack of oxygen supplies in one hospital, evoked only a passing reference from Modi in his Independence Day address. This is in stark contrast with the PM’s instant tweets condoling tragedies in far-off lands. After the firebrand journalist-activist Gauri Lankesh was killed, Modi remained silent and continued to follow Twitter trolls who rejoiced in the brutal murder. Will such heartless hypocrisy go unnoticed by voters?

When it comes to governance, Modi has failed to deliver. Modi wasted his post-election political capital on unsuccesfully trying to repeal the UPA’s land acquisition law. This triggered an all-round backlash that he did not care for farmers, strengthened by his inability to deliver on the poll promise of providing a minimum support price to farmers at 50% above costs. His new promise is to double farmers’ incomes by 2022, even as agrarian distress prevails, and food prices come down, affecting farmers’ purchasing power (even though this allows the government to claim credit for taming inflation).

The altered method of calculating GDP created the illusion that growth under BJP is higher than at the end of UPA’s term. While India is undoubtedly growing faster than most countries, thus attracting foreign investment, it faces a massive problem in the banking sector which is stuck with bad loans due to economic exuberance, court judgments and venality. Banks have stopped lending and a debt-heavy private sector is not investing, bringing private capital formation to a near standstill. Measures such as the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Law will take time to take effect. The government failed to capitalize on low crude oil prices to spur consumption-led growth and instead raised taxes to embellish its fiscal deficit numbers.

 

Just when the economy was slowing down due to mismanagement, Modi chose to inflict demonetization, which has caused GDP growth to drop by 2.2% to a three-year low of 5.7% in the first quarter of 2017. Demonetization may have been Modi’s attempt to demonstrate strong action on black money, especially after BJP President Amit Shah dismissed Modi’s election promise to bring back black money stashed overseas to the tune of Rs 15 lakh in every Indian’s bank account as a jumla (an empty statement). This ill-conceived and badly implemented move did not achieve its aims of rooting out black money, terror financing and counterfeit currency. Rather, it disrupted India’s substantial cash-driven agricultural and unorganized sectors. It forced the poor to wait endlessly in long queues to exchange old currency even as the corrupt connived with bank officials to undertake a massive money laundering operation.

In the short-term, Modi survived the political backlash by appealing to the public to make sacrifices as part of a war on corruption. But the public is unlikely to remain forgiving in 2019 as evidence unfolds that demonetization badly hurt the economy. Its impact on the poor can be gauged by the 2017 budget’s record allocation to the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. This reflects increased demand for social insurance triggered by reverse migration of labour after demonetization disrupted the construction sector. The return of 99% of demonetized currency to the banking system is also convincing proof that demonetization was a monumental disaster.

 

Most importantly, while Modi made election promises of creating 20 million jobs a year, he has actually presided over net job destruction. As per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, 1.5 million jobs were lost during the first quarter of 2017. GDP growth during April-June 2017 is 2.2% lower than in the previous year. If the demonetization-induced‘ Modi Slump’ extends for a year, it will cost the economy at least three lakh crore rupees of lost growth.

Modi’s anti-corruption track record is also hollow. He has not initiated action against BJP state governments deeply involved in scams. He has failed to implement the Lokpal Act and has weakened the Whistle-blowers Protection Act, Prevention of Corruption Act and Right to Information Act. The introduction of electoral bonds will only further increase the opacity in electoral funding. The allegations that have recently surfaced against Amit Shah’s son’s business dealings have been met with a stony silence from Modi.

On security, Modi did not have a full time defence minister for a quarter of his tenure. He has limited the foreign minister’s role to running a Twitter helpline. The much hyped surgical strikes have had no impact on Pakistan sponsored terrorist attacks. Modi’s foreign visits have gained India precious little. He did not contest the United States’ proposed restrictions on H1-B visas, thus hurting our software exports. Relations with our immediate neighbours and strategic partners like Russia have deteriorated under BJP. Internally, Kashmir has descended to a level where faith in the Indian state and in the BJP-PDP state government has dropped precipitously; the single digit vote percentage during the Srinagar by-election is ample proof. Moreover, there is palpable insecurity among minorities across the country.

 

It would, therefore, seem straightforward for Congress and other opposition parties to capitalize on Modi’s abysmal governance track record. However, this public relations obsessed government has maintained a stranglehold over the media narrative. Corporate owners of mainstream media fearfully toe the government’s line and make it difficult for the opposition to hold it accountable. Influential television channels regularly ignore pressing issues while focusing on topics that distract from the government’s failures. BJP’s troll armies single-mindedly attack opponents even as they spread doctored videos and fake news on WhatsApp, Facebook and Twitter. Thus the perception of Modi’s hegemony gets strengthened.

But events have a way of breaking through. Daily train derailments, an epidemic of children dying in government hospitals in BJP-run states and regular random lynchings may have become the new normal. But they chip away at Modi’s grandiloquent claims of ushering in a New India and, unfortunately, his government’s incompetence will only ensure that worse headlines await. It is, therefore, vital that Congress finds a way to restore balance to the media narrative and communicates its own credible message and a clearly articulated alternative vision through a sustained media and social media push. The green shoots of the Congress message finding resonance are emerging now.

 

Modi and BJP have thus far been riding the wave of Hindu nationalism buttressed by the portrayal of a strong-man at the helm, unafraid to conduct surgical strikes against Pakistan. Their brand of nationalism, however, is fraught with the danger of antipathy and violence toward Dalits, religious minorities and anyone who does not subscribe to the Sangh Parivar’s ideology. The rise of intolerance towards dissenters and minorities has led to widespread protests by civil society and leading intellectuals have returned their awards in a wave of condemnation.

BJP’s unique innovations have been ‘cow vigilantism’ and retail lynching as a tactic of communal violence. Targeting of Muslims and Dalits has increased in BJP-led states, abetted by new rules banning beef or regulating cattle slaughter. Mob violence against random individuals for varied reasons has become routine. If Modi and BJP are not able to curb their violent fringe, they risk a political backlash from a large section of youth, middle class and moderates who voted for development in 2014 while choosing to ignore the divisiveness in BJP’s DNA. Will this large swing vote tire of the acid tests imposed on some Indians to prove their patriotism? Will they ignore the daily headlines featuring intolerance and lynching? Will they reject the blood soaked politics of jingoism that BJP has harnessed to distract from its incompetence at governance? Will they willingly accept curbs on their freedom to eat, dress, watch, mingle, wed and think, all in the name of Indian culture as espoused by the Sangh Parivar?

The answers to these questions will emerge from political contestation. Here it is worth remembering that India’s core ethos is fundamentally inclusive. Our pathbreaking Constitution reflects Ashoka’s dharma, Akbar’s syncretism, the reformist spirit of Bhakti and Sufi movements, Tagore’s humanism, Gandhi’s immense moral force, Nehru’s modernizing rationality and social justice epitomized by Ambedkar and Periyar’s anti-caste movements. The Hindutva ideology that treats minorities as second class citizens is an affront to our Constitution, to India’s core ethos and to Hinduism’s ability to accommodate diversity. As the gap increases between Modi’s rhetoric and the illiberal reality imposed by Hindutva’s foot soldiers, a significant section of Indians will yearn for a centrist, liberal and inclusive party, giving Congress an opportunity to resurrect itself nationally.

 

To turn perceptions and reality around, Congress needs more electoral victories like its triumph in Punjab in 2017. If one were to draw a line from Kerala to Kashmir on the map, the Congress has a strong political base to build on to the left of this line and in a few other states. In terms of state elections that precede the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, substantial evidence of scams and mis-governance has created a fertile ground for anti-incumbency to turn the wave against the BJP in Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. These states feature a direct fight between Congress and BJP. Congress needs to win some of these states to shatter the perception of BJP dominance.

BJP’s vulnerability has led to speculation that Modi may advance the Lok Sabha polls to coincide with state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, in the hope that his personal popularity will overcome local anti-incumbency. He has been trying to promote the narrative of simultaneous elections under the guise of efficiency and rising costs of elections. The real agenda is to make elections more presidential in nature and to distract voters from state-level failures.

 

In 2014, BJP won 254 out of its 282 seats in the 12 states of UP, Maharashtra, MP, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Haryana and Delhi. A carefully targeted Congress effort can reduce BJP’s tally here. BJP won just 28 seats in the rest of the country and its scope for expansion is limited in Kerala (where Congress and left parties alternate), Bengal, AP, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu (where powerful regional parties dominate). Nevertheless, BJP will likely have powerful alliance partners in the latter three states and is making inroads in Odisha. However, in Maharashtra, BJP’s love-hate alliance with the Shiv Sena may affect its prospects adversely. And in UP, Bihar, Bengal and Tamil Nadu, alliance arithmetic will be required for Congress to effectively negate the BJP.

While BJP wallows in hubris that it is unstoppable, India is actually very volatile. Powerful agrarian castes such as Marathas, Kapus, Jats and Patidars are agitating in Maharashtra, AP, Haryana and Gujarat respectively and the BJP is in no position to accede to their demands. The Jallikattu protests in Tamil Nadu showed how easily youth could rally when their cultural identity was threatened. In Karnataka, sentiment against Hindi imposition (identified with BJP) is gaining momentum. Nationwide, traders and small businesses are upset about the impacts of demonetization and hasty GST implementation. Farmers continue to agitate across the country as their real incomes fall and debts rise. Dalits are upset in Gujarat and UP. Youth are facing severe stress due to lack of jobs and opportunities. Social liberals are repelled by the BJP’s unleashing of regressive thugs.

Congress must strengthen its outreach to these diverse sections of society and rejig its social coalition support base in different states. It needs to conduct widespread consultations and conversations to arrive at an alternative agenda that addresses their concerns. It also needs to bring back those Hindus into its fold who are repelled by how the Sangh Parivar has mangled a pluralistic, tolerant, self-reforming faith. Together, these varied groups represent a formidable counter force to the Modi machine.

 

Since Modi has personalized and centralized governance, if the Congress can convince voters that he took them for a ride, then the BJP will go down with him. Enough evidence is emerging to convince the public that Modi has failed to deliver on his election promises and actually hurt economic growth (through demonetization and GST) and social harmony. Further, as the BJP tries to transform itself into a mass-based party, its internal contradictions will emerge, especially between the favoured RSS core and those who have joined it for political mobility but find themselves powerless. Similarly, conflicts can erupt between the economic right wing who supported Modi hoping for liberalization and the cultural right wing who backed him hoping he will deliver on their hardline Hindutva agenda.

For Congress to take advantage of BJP’s weaknesses, it needs to revitalize its party organization. During the UPA years, then General Secretary Rahul Gandhi took charge of the Indian Youth Congress and National Students Union of India, emphasized internal elections and opened doors to fresh talent. With lessons from the experience, as he prepares to take over as Congress President, he is ushering in systematic organizational changes that are not immediately apparent, as the big ship turns slowly. Senior leaders are now in charge of only one state, assisted by a younger team of secretaries. The party is modernizing its departments, reaching out to professionals who have hitherto stayed away from politics. It is strengthening its research, communication and social media capabilities. Congress is implementing a technology-enabled, cadre-based approach, with booth committees to keep workers engaged and energized. The Congress organization’s strength in states like Kerala, where party workers are well informed and highly motivated, must be emulated across India to strengthen the party.

 

The ethos of the Congress as a mass-based party remains its strength even when its representation in legislatures is depleted. The typical Congress supporter is not necessarily the RSS pracharak who is dedicated to the cause of Hindutva all year round. The party has to activate dormant Congress supporters as 2019 approaches While Modi and Shah refuse to answer questions in press conferences and resort to monologues or carefully choreographed interviews, Rahul Gandhi can build on his strength; candid and thoughtful interactive sessions like at the University of California, Berkeley and free and frank engagement during his public meetings in Gujarat. His emphasis on bottom-up consultation, decentralization, empowerment and openness to criticism (all in refreshing contrast to the Modi-Shah autocratic approach) can be transformative, if operationalized systematically.

 

The latest cabinet reshuffle demonstrated how the BJP has a limited talent pool and is finding it difficult to deliver on its promises of job creation and economic growth. In contrast, Congress has experienced bench strength and needs to showcase its team effectively, inside and outside of Parliament, for example by establishing a shadow cabinet. It needs to decisively curb internal sabotage and infighting among leaders. It will have to rejuvenate itself through satyagrahas against injustice and misrule. It needs to launch modern mass contact programmes, where it listens to public concerns and obtains inputs for a detailed, grounded manifesto. It can revive crowdfunding, taking inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi’s char anna membership drive, to give workers a stake, even as it boosts party finances. Congress must also take the lead in catalyzing an opposition alliance, well in advance of 2019. It must partner with social movements and civil society to craft an inclusive coalition that exemplifies courage, justice, empowerment and commitment to pluralism while tapping into the aspirations of youth.

The Congress can also benefit tremendously from a strategic focus on states. Working on state-specific agendas or regional identity can counter and chip away at BJP’s one-size-fits-all narrative. It needs to identify state leaders with potential and empower them. It needs to showcase its models of governance in Karnataka and Punjab. It needs to recover from the loss of powerful factions and reverse its decline when it is pushed to third place in a state. Its regaining strength indicated in recent polls in Delhi, Punjab, Maharashtra and Kerala and in university elections in Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan and Assam is a positive indication. It needs a strategy to fill the political vacuum created, e.g., by the decline of the left (and Aam Aadmi Party) or the departure of powerful regional leaders.

 

Most importantly, the Congress needs to craft a narrative and ideological construct that appeals to constituencies that go beyond identities like caste or religion. Alternative economic approaches that build on small businesses and meaningful job creation and entrepreneurship need to be crafted. Focusing on women and youth and their aspirations will be key. It also needs to build a vision for rapidly urbanizing India while offering concrete measures to reverse rural decline. It needs to showcase how business and the economy benefited under Congress. It needs to craft new paradigms for social justice, inclusion and decentralization. Congress has a number of young leaders who can spearhead this effort, with the guidance of seniors.

As 2019 approaches, it is likely that a desperate BJP will try to distract from its incompetent governance track record by returning to communalization, e.g., by reviving the Ramjanmabhoomi issue. Congress has to point out forcefully that communal tensions are counterproductive to economic growth, so that Indians, especially the middle class which helped Congress win in 2009 but abandoned it in 2014, embrace it again. Congress has much work to do to strengthen itself and to transform public perception before 2019. But with renewed belief in itself, fire in its belly, resurgent leadership, aided by a failing Modi, it is entirely possible for Congress to turn its fortunes around and destroy the myth of BJP hegemony.